Bayes' rule

Laplace had owned Bayes’ rule in all but name since 1781. The formula, the method, and its masterful utilization all belong to Pierre Simon Laplace. He made probability-based statistics commonplace. By transforming a theory of gambling into practical mathematics, Laplace’s work dominated probability and statistics for a century. “In my mind,” Glenn Shafer of Rutgers University observed, “Laplace did everything, and we just read stuff back into Thomas Bayes. Laplace put it into modern terms. In a sense, everything is Laplacean.” If advancing the world’s knowledge is important, Bayes’ rule should be called Laplace’s rule or, in modern parlance, BPL for Bayes-Price-Laplace. Sadly, a half century of usage forces us to give Bayes’ name to what was really Laplace’s achievement.

2011, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, Yale University Press, →ISBN, page 32