Monte Carlo fallacy

noun

The fallacy, most often believed by gamblers, that a past random event influences the outcome of a future random event, that is, that a run of even numbers at roulette means that there is a greater chance of an odd number next time.

Similar
gambler's fallacy
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Meanings

nounMonte Carlo fallacy (plural Monte Carlo fallacies)

plural Monte Carlo fallacies

  1. The fallacy, most often believed by gamblers, that a past random event influences the outcome of a future random event, that is, that a run of even numbers at roulette means that there is a greater chance of an odd number next time.

    Synonyms: gambler's fallacy

Synonyms & antonyms

nounThe fallacy, most often believed by gamblers, that a past random event influences the outcome of a future random event, that is, that a run of even numbers at roulette means that there is a greater chance of an odd number next time.

Similar
gambler's fallacy
Also see
gambler's fallacy

Origin

From an incident which took place at the Casino de Monte-Carlo.

Full word history & related roots →
Cite this entry
APA

Monte Carlo fallacy. (n.d.). In WatkinsX Dictionary. Retrieved November 5, 2026, from https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Monte%20Carlo%20fallacy

MLA

“Monte Carlo fallacy.” WatkinsX Dictionary, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Monte%20Carlo%20fallacy. Accessed November 5, 2026.

Chicago

WatkinsX Dictionary, s.v. “Monte Carlo fallacy,” accessed November 5, 2026, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Monte%20Carlo%20fallacy.

Source: Monte Carlo fallacy on Wiktionary, CC BY-SA 4.0.