black swan fallacy

noun

The logical error of discounting the possibility of something because no evidence has yet been observed for it.

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Meanings

nounblack swan fallacy (plural black swan fallacies)

plural black swan fallacies

  1. The logical error of discounting the possibility of something because no evidence has yet been observed for it.
    1 more example

    The black swan fallacy holds that if all you have ever observed in your field research are white swans, you might be tempted to conclude 'All swans are white'. However, a black swan was discovered in Australia. Therefore, all it takes is one black swan to falsify the general statement about the universality of white swans.

    2015, Robert V Kozinets, Netnography: Redefined, page 163
Cite this entry
APA

black swan fallacy. (n.d.). In WatkinsX Dictionary. Retrieved November 5, 2026, from https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/black%20swan%20fallacy

MLA

“black swan fallacy.” WatkinsX Dictionary, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/black%20swan%20fallacy. Accessed November 5, 2026.

Chicago

WatkinsX Dictionary, s.v. “black swan fallacy,” accessed November 5, 2026, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/black%20swan%20fallacy.

Source: black swan fallacy on Wiktionary, CC BY-SA 4.0.