Pascal's mugging

proper noun

A thought experiment demonstrating a problem in expected utility maximization. A rational agent should choose actions whose outcomes, when weighed by their probability, have higher utility; but some very unlikely outcomes may have very great utilities, and these utilities can grow faster than the probability diminishes. Hence the agent should focus more on vastly improbable cases with implausibly high rewards; this leads first to counterintuitive choices, and then to incoherence as the utility of every choice becomes unbounded.

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Meanings

proper noun
  1. human sciencesA thought experiment demonstrating a problem in expected utility maximization. A rational agent should choose actions whose outcomes, when weighed by their probability, have higher utility; but some very unlikely outcomes may have very great utilities, and these utilities can grow faster than the probability diminishes. Hence the agent should focus more on vastly improbable cases with implausibly high rewards; this leads first to counterintuitive choices, and then to incoherence as the utility of every choice becomes unbounded.

Origin

Coined by Eliezer Yudkowsky, based on Pascal's wager.

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Cite this entry
APA

Pascal's mugging. (n.d.). In WatkinsX Dictionary. Retrieved November 3, 2026, from https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Pascal's%20mugging

MLA

“Pascal's mugging.” WatkinsX Dictionary, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Pascal's%20mugging. Accessed November 3, 2026.

Chicago

WatkinsX Dictionary, s.v. “Pascal's mugging,” accessed November 3, 2026, https://dictionary.watkinsx.com/word/Pascal's%20mugging.

Source: Pascal's mugging on Wiktionary, CC BY-SA 4.0.