aclimatological

The principal disadvantage of climatology is that it gives only the average behavior of storms under the average conditions. Therefore, climatology can never handle aclimatological situations. The analog approach attempts to minimize this problem by restricting the historical data base to a small subset that hopefully represents synoptic conditions that are fairly close to those influencing the present storm.

1993, Richard A. Jeffries, Charles R. Sampson, Lester E. III Carr, Jan-Hwa Chu, Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide; 5. Numerical track forecast guidance, Defense Technical Information Center

Seasons that are active in the deep tropics also tend to be associated with relatively low CLIPER5 errors. To the extent that erratic or aclimatological behavior is difficult to anticipate by a forecaster or a model, the seasonal variations in CLIPER5 errors offer a convenient, if imperfect, way to normalize seasonal errors for forecast difficulty. This in turn is helpful to elucidate longer-term trends in forecast accuracy.

2022, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, R. Zelinsky, D. A. Zelinsky, M. J. Onderlinde, J. A. Knaff, S. N. Stevenson, J. Kaplan, K. D. Musgrave, G. Chirokova, C. R. Sampson, “The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Suite.”, in Weather and Forecasting, →DOI

Official intensity forecast errors were greater than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period at all forecast times except 120 h. However, the OCD5 errors were also much higher than the mean errors for the previous 5-yr period, indicating that Beryl’s aclimatological intensity was harder than normal to forecast, which is not surprising given the rapid intensification and weakening episodes.

2025, John L. Beven II, Cody Fritz, Laura Alaka, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT - HURRICANE BERYL, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, page 14